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Innocephorous Can you reveal your theory around the US "debt trap" and even how it relates to rising rates, excessive deficits and poor dollar? Thanks upfront. Partial answer There are various of aspects to this particular discussion. First component is that the interest rates play pertaining to foreign and household markets. the second component would be the relationship between extended and short phrase rates. The finally component is inflation objectives, on both dangerous and domestic fronts. Finally, another component would be the militaristic component of asking for a large contingent of your developing world within the hook with long-term fixed rate debt even as plan to walk domestic rates. What I see would be the following: Short term rates are hiked by any Fed, and will continue to be. Long term rates are currently being driven by foreign exchange. The yield shape is flattening (long period rates have minimal premium over quick rates), and it may just invert (an unstable situation which might be supported by disparate international and domestic fiscal outlooks). Long term rates are driven by imported central banks for several reasons (financial security of united states versus foreign purchase, keeping the $ strong against dealing partner currencies to get exporter advantage, for example. ). Eventually quick rates will drive extended rates if quick rates are hiked higher enough. This will be necessary as overseas central banks will be unable to sustain their buying of people debt for that trade advantage a result of the falling dollar (caused to some extent by deficit spending), and ultimately this approach Treasury debt must be purchased by national (US) investors. This buyer handoff will be needing a significant increase in long-lasting rates (-%) to suit real inflation (including housing) and this also will cause the real estate markets to cool and also correct downward, especially given the multitude of floating rate home loans... but this is usually a sidebar. Consider how are you affected next, as US extended rates rise (it possesses happened before): Foreign capital is actually attracted for expenditure of money purposes (not main bank purposes involving manipulating the economy) and also exits existing foreign investments chases north america Treasury yield rather then being used to purchase foreign countries. This causes this satellite countries to run dry in capital the way it enters the US ALL markets, this reasons recessions or uglier in these nations. Also, a great deal of foreign banks would be holding US fixed rate permanent debt at -% whereas current rates are near -%. This means on-line (principal) of the holdings is actually decreased. So, online, our competitors suffer from recession and devaluation in their assets, and the main cycle starts all over again. I have solely fleshed out any argument here and it also would take hours to try and do it complete the legal. For the few within this board that might follow, I'm sure you possibly can fill in the info causal relationships (and assumptions) My business is using, and you will discover certainly good misunderstandings against my appraisal. This isn't physics! Reviews?